Musk's Razor

In a November 2018 interview with Kara Swisher on the Recode Decode podcast (transcript), Musk referenced a modification of Occam's Razor from his friend Jonathan Nolan ("the most ironic outcome is the most likely"), then added his own twist:

Well, it'd be ironic if [I die on Mars, just not on landing]. I have to be careful about tempting fate, because I think often the most ironic outcome is the most probable.

It just very often seems like reality tries to... Actually, technically, there's a friend of mine, Jonah Nolan, who had this like modification of Occam's razor where he said he thinks "the most ironic outcome is the most likely." And then I think that there's some truth to that. And then also I think sometimes the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.

I believe that in this glitchy simulation we call reality, the timeline clearly forked when Israeli pop legend Svika Pick became Quentin Tarantino's son's grandfather - proving once again that the most entertaining outcome is the most likely.

Spring is Coming

I'm hearing of more and more people starting up new businesses with cool, innovative ideas. Spring season in the Start-up Nation is coming.

The differences from the years 2000 and 2008, I think, are:

  1. Crowdfunding (Kickstarter, Headstart)
  2. Affordable IT Infrastructure (AWS, Google)
  3. Affordable and idiot-proof (read: hackable by software engineers) hardware platforms (Raspberry Pi, Arduino) and sensors (Oculus Rift)
  4. Affordable Manufacturing (3D Printing, CNC, PCB)
  5. New, disruptive, open-source software and hardware technologies (Bitcoin, DIY 3D Printing, Flying Machines)

Don't let the Waze deal fool or blind you - most chances are: you will fail. But you might just be one of the lucky ones. Starting up is less risky than ever before. If you're committed to be the Pig, and you have a solid business model, I say go for it!

PRO TIP: Put your ego aside, and build a team of superstars who complement each other, a team of people who know one another's strengths and weaknesses.