The Fourth Transformation
My signed copy of Robert Scoble and Shel Israel's The Fourth Transformation.
The premise: We've had three interface transformations - text (1970s), GUI (1984), touch (2007). The fourth is AR glasses with AI. Ten years from now, the smartphone won't be the center of your digital life. Glasses will.
I backed the Oculus Rift in 2012. Got Glass in 2014. Walked around Yarkon Park with it during morning stroller walks with my son. Awkward. Not very useful. The Oculus sits mostly unused - hard to disconnect from the surroundings, from what's going on at home, even for games.
Still believe in the trajectory. When the form factor is regular glasses, it'll work. Then contact lenses. Then direct brain interface.
Kurzweil (The Singularity Is Near, 2005): "Intelligent nano-robots will be deeply integrated in our bodies, our brains, and our environment". By the early 2030s, non-biological computation exceeds the capacity of all human intelligence. Singularity by 2045.
The current hardware isn't there. The direction is.
- The Singularity Is Near, pp. 316-317